Tropical Cyclone Activity

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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 162337
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located a few hundred miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have become
a little more concentrated this afternoon.  Upper-level winds are
forecast to become more conducive for development during the next
day or so while the low moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean, crossing into the Caribbean Sea on Friday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are expected to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles on
Thursday night and Friday, and interests there and elsewhere in
the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this
disturbance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system on Thursday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A second area of low pressure is located about 950 miles west
of the Cabo Verde Islands, and its associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized.  Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next few days while it
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds
are expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation
when the disturbance moves north of the Leeward Islands this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development
over the weekend while the system moves westward to west-
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Gert (AT3/AL082017)
    ...GERT A LITTLE STRONGER BUT LIKELY TO BEGIN WEAKENING SOON OVER COLDER WATERS... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 16 the center of Gert was located near 40.1, -58.4 with movement ENE at 37 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Hurricane Gert

  • Hurricane Gert Public Advisory Number 17
    Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 16 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 170231 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Gert Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 16 2017 ...GERT A LITTLE STRONGER BUT LIKELY TO BEGIN WEAKENING SOON OVER COLDER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.1N 58.4W ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gert was located near latitude 40.1 North, longitude 58.4 West. Gert is moving rapidly toward the east-northeast near 37 mph (59 km/h). An even faster motion toward the east-northeast is expected through Thursday, followed by some deceleration and a turn toward the northeast Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. A weakening trend is forecast to begin Thursday morning, and Gert is likely to lose its tropical characteristics by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Gert will affect the east coast of the United States from Virginia northward to New England and Atlantic Canada through Thursday. Swells are also expected to continue to affect Bermuda through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>
  • Hurricane Gert Forecast Advisory Number 17
    Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 17 2017 000 WTNT23 KNHC 170230 TCMAT3 HURRICANE GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082017 0300 UTC THU AUG 17 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 58.4W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 32 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 80SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 240SE 300SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 58.4W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 60.3W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 42.6N 52.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 110SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 46.5N 43.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 50.5N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 52.5N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 53.5N 31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 180SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...MERGED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.1N 58.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
  • Hurricane Gert Forecast Discussion Number 17
    Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 16 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 170232 TCDAT3 Hurricane Gert Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 16 2017 Gert has maintained an eye with very cold cloud tops mainly over the northern and western portions of the circulation, which is rather remarkable for a system at 40N latitude. The current intensity is set a little higher, to 90 kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone has continued to traverse warm waters, but very soon will encounter a much cooler ocean to the north of the Gulf Stream. Thus, rapid weakening is forecast, similar to the latest model consensus. In 36 hours the global model guidance depicts the system becoming embedded in a distinct baroclinic zone, so Gert should have become an extratropical storm by that time. The extratropical cyclone is forecast to merge with another large low over the north Atlantic after 72 hours. Gert has continued to accelerate and is now moving east-northeastward near 32 kt. A slightly faster motion is expected on Thursday in the strong flow to the southeast of a mid-tropospheric cyclone nearing Newfoundland. Later in the forecast period, the post-tropical system is likely to turn northeastward and slow down significantly while it interacts with the other large low. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts have incorporated guidance from NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. Swells from Gert should continue to affect the northeast U.S. coast and Atlantic Canada through Thursday. These swells are likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 40.1N 58.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 42.6N 52.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 46.5N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 50.5N 38.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/0000Z 52.5N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/0000Z 53.5N 31.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>
  • Hurricane Gert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
    Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 17 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 170231 PWSAT3 HURRICANE GERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082017 0300 UTC THU AUG 17 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS ...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
  • Hurricane Gert Graphics
    Hurricane Gert 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Aug 2017 02:36:04 GMT

    Hurricane Gert 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Aug 2017 03:25:28 GMT ]]>
  • RSS Tropical Cyclone Advisories from NHC

    Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 162337
    TWOAT 
    
    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017
    
    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
    
    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
    Gert, located a few hundred miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia.
    
    Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
    located about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have become
    a little more concentrated this afternoon.  Upper-level winds are
    forecast to become more conducive for development during the next
    day or so while the low moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the
    tropical Atlantic Ocean, crossing into the Caribbean Sea on Friday.
    Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
    are expected to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles on
    Thursday night and Friday, and interests there and elsewhere in
    the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this
    disturbance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
    scheduled to investigate this system on Thursday, if necessary.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
    
    A second area of low pressure is located about 950 miles west
    of the Cabo Verde Islands, and its associated shower and
    thunderstorm activity remains disorganized.  Gradual development
    of this system is possible during the next few days while it
    moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds
    are expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation
    when the disturbance moves north of the Leeward Islands this
    weekend.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
    
    A tropical wave located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is
    producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental
    conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development
    over the weekend while the system moves westward to west-
    northwestward at about 15 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Brown

    Summary for Hurricane Gert (AT3/AL082017)

    ...GERT A LITTLE STRONGER BUT LIKELY TO BEGIN WEAKENING SOON OVER COLDER WATERS...
     As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 16
     the center of Gert was located near 40.1, -58.4
     with movement ENE at 37 mph.
     The minimum central pressure was 967 mb
     with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

    Hurricane Gert Public Advisory Number 17

    Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 16 2017  
    
    000
    WTNT33 KNHC 170231
    TCPAT3
    
    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Gert Advisory Number  17
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017
    1100 PM AST Wed Aug 16 2017
    
    ...GERT A LITTLE STRONGER BUT LIKELY TO BEGIN WEAKENING SOON OVER
    COLDER WATERS...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...40.1N 58.4W
    ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
    ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gert was located
    near latitude 40.1 North, longitude 58.4 West.  Gert is moving
    rapidly toward the east-northeast near 37 mph (59 km/h).  An even
    faster motion toward the east-northeast is expected through
    Thursday, followed by some deceleration and a turn toward the
    northeast Thursday night and Friday.
    
    Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
    gusts.  A weakening trend is forecast to begin Thursday morning, and
    Gert is likely to lose its tropical characteristics by Friday.
    
    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
    center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
    (220 km).
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    SURF:  Swells generated by Gert will affect the east coast of
    the United States from Virginia northward to New England and
    Atlantic Canada through Thursday.  Swells are also expected to
    continue to affect Bermuda through tonight.  These swells are likely
    to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
    consult products from your local weather forecast office.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Pasch

    Hurricane Gert Forecast Advisory Number 17

    Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 17 2017  
    
    000
    WTNT23 KNHC 170230
    TCMAT3
    
    HURRICANE GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082017
    0300 UTC THU AUG 17 2017
    
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
    
    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.1N  58.4W AT 17/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
    
    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  65 DEGREES AT  32 KT
    
    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  967 MB
    EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
    64 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
    50 KT....... 50NE  60SE  15SW  20NW.
    34 KT....... 90NE 120SE  80SW  50NW.
    12 FT SEAS..120NE 240SE 300SW 240NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
    
    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.1N  58.4W AT 17/0300Z
    AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  60.3W
    
    FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 42.6N  52.1W
    MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE  35SE  15SW   0NW.
    50 KT... 50NE  70SE  40SW  30NW.
    34 KT... 90NE 140SE 110SW  60NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 46.5N  43.8W
    MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW   0NW.
    34 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW  60NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 50.5N  38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
    50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
    34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 52.5N  35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
    34 KT...200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
    
    FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 53.5N  31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
    34 KT...150NE 150SE 180SW 200NW.
    
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
    
    OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...MERGED
    
    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.1N  58.4W
    
    NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
    
    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH

    Hurricane Gert Forecast Discussion Number 17

    Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 16 2017  
    
    000
    WTNT43 KNHC 170232
    TCDAT3
    
    Hurricane Gert Discussion Number  17
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017
    1100 PM AST Wed Aug 16 2017
    
    Gert has maintained an eye with very cold cloud tops mainly over
    the northern and western portions of the circulation, which is
    rather remarkable for a system at 40N latitude. The current
    intensity is set a little higher, to 90 kt, in agreement with the
    latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  The cyclone has
    continued to traverse warm waters, but very soon will encounter a
    much cooler ocean to the north of the Gulf Stream.  Thus, rapid
    weakening is forecast, similar to the latest model consensus.  In 36
    hours the global model guidance depicts the system becoming embedded
    in a distinct baroclinic zone, so Gert should have become an
    extratropical storm by that time.  The extratropical cyclone is
    forecast to merge with another large low over the north Atlantic
    after 72 hours.
    
    Gert has continued to accelerate and is now moving
    east-northeastward near 32 kt.  A slightly faster motion is
    expected on Thursday in the strong flow to the southeast of a
    mid-tropospheric cyclone nearing Newfoundland.  Later in the
    forecast period, the post-tropical system is likely to turn
    northeastward and slow down significantly while it interacts with
    the other large low.
    
    The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts have incorporated
    guidance from NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.
    
    Swells from Gert should continue to affect the northeast U.S. coast
    and Atlantic Canada through Thursday.  These swells are likely to
    produce dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
    products from your local weather forecast office for more
    information.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  17/0300Z 40.1N  58.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
     12H  17/1200Z 42.6N  52.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
     24H  18/0000Z 46.5N  43.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
     36H  18/1200Z 50.5N  38.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     48H  19/0000Z 52.5N  35.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     72H  20/0000Z 53.5N  31.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     96H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
    
    $$
    Forecaster Pasch

    Hurricane Gert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

    Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 17 2017                                              
    
    000
    FONT13 KNHC 170231
    PWSAT3
                                                                        
    HURRICANE GERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17                  
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082017               
    0300 UTC THU AUG 17 2017                                            
                                                                        
    AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.1
    NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS
    ...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                              
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
     
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER PASCH

    Hurricane Gert Graphics

    Hurricane Gert 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Aug 2017 02:36:04 GMT

    Hurricane Gert 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Aug 2017 03:25:28 GMT

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162336
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 16 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located about 600 miles south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for some development during the next several days while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
]]>

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 17 Aug 2017 03:25:45 GMT


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