Tropical Cyclone Activity

Current Atlantic Satellite Loop


Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 270526
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge into the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday.  Some development of this
system is then possible until the weekend when environmental
conditions are forecast to be less favorable for further
organization.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 27 Jun 2017 05:35:22 GMT
RSS Tropical Cyclone Advisories from NHC

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 270526
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge into the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday.  Some development of this
system is then possible until the weekend when environmental
conditions are forecast to be less favorable for further
organization.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 27 Jun 2017 05:35:22 GMT

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270535
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jun 26 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dora, located a couple of hundred miles southwest of Cabo
Corrientes, Mexico.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form late this week a
few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible over the weekend
while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
]]>

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Dora (EP4/EP042017)
    ...DORA MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 the center of Dora was located near 18.4, -108.3 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane Dora

  • Hurricane Dora Public Advisory Number 9
    Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 270244 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 ...DORA MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 108.3W ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Dora was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 108.3 West. Dora is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Dora is expected to pass over or just north of Socorro Island on Tuesday, and remain well south of the Baja California peninsula. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Dora is forecast to become a tropical storm Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Dora are affecting portions of the coast of southwest Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northwestward and begin affecting portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula by early Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>
  • Hurricane Dora Forecast Advisory Number 9
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 27 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 270243 TCMEP4 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 0300 UTC TUE JUN 27 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 108.3W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 108.3W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.9N 109.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.4N 111.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.8N 113.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.2N 114.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.7N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 108.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Hurricane Dora Forecast Discussion Number 9
    Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270246 TCDEP4 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Dora continues to exhibit a very symmetric cloud pattern with a well-defined 25 to 30 n mi wide eye. The convective cloud tops have gradually warmed today, but subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial intensity of 80 kt. The hurricane will be moving over cooler waters as it crosses the 26 degree Celsius isotherm very soon. Since the shear is expected to remain quite low throughout the forecast period, this may result in a somewhat slower than typical rate of weakening during the next day or so. After that time, Dora will be moving over waters colder than 24 degrees Celsius which should cause a faster rate of decay. Dora is forecast to become a tropical storm in about 24 hours, and degenerate into a remnant low in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is initially close to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance but leans toward the intensity consensus at 24 h and beyond. Dora is moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. A large deep-layer ridge to the north of the hurricane should keep it moving on a west-northwestward track during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, a weaker and more shallow Dora should turn generally westward in the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory and is close to the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 18.4N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 18.9N 109.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 19.4N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 19.8N 113.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 20.2N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 20.7N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>
  • Hurricane Dora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 27 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 270244 PWSEP4 HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 0300 UTC TUE JUN 27 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 30 39(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 20N 110W 50 2 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 110W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 14 75(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) ISLA SOCORRO 50 1 42(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 28(38) 8(46) X(46) X(46) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Hurricane Dora Graphics
    Hurricane Dora 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Jun 2017 02:49:20 GMT

    Hurricane Dora 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Jun 2017 03:22:03 GMT ]]>


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