996 ABNT20 KNHC 160501TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 16 Jun 2025 10:20:09 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

996 
ABNT20 KNHC 160501
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 16 Jun 2025 10:20:09 GMT

ABPZ20 KNHC 160503
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila, located in the eastern Pacific basin 
a few hundred miles west of the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
A broad area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms over and offshore of Central America. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of 
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple 
of days while it moves west-northwestward near the coasts of El 
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico. Interests in these 
locations should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of 
development, areas of heavy rain are likely across portions of 
Central America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi]]>

...DALILA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON DALILA... As of 8:00 PM MST Sun Jun 15 the center of Dalila was located near 18.6, -109.2 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 522 
WTPZ34 KNHC 160233
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
800 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025
 
...DALILA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON DALILA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 109.2W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila
was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 109.2 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h). A gradual turn towards the west is expected tonight,
followed by continued westward motion for another day or two.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued slow weakening is expected during the next
couple of days. Dalila is forecast to dissipate late Tuesday or
early Wednesday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane 
Center on Dalila. For additional information on the remnant low 
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and 
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 16 2025 521 
WTPZ24 KNHC 160233
TCMEP4
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042025
0300 UTC MON JUN 16 2025
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 109.2W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE  45SE  45SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 109.2W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 108.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.7N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.8N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.9N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.5N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 109.2W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON DALILA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW 
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

 
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 262 
WTPZ44 KNHC 160234
TCDEP4
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
800 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025
 
Dalila is no longer producing organized deep convection and has
become a remnant low. Therefore, this will be the last NHC advisory
on Dalila. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt, based on
recent Dvorak estimates and the UW-CIMSS AIDT.
 
The remnant low has continued on a west-northwestward heading
during the past few hours, but a turn westward is still expected
tonight. The cyclone will should then continue westward for another
day or so while slowly spinning down over cool waters. Most models
indicate that Dalila will dissipate entirely in about 2 days. The
NHC forecast track for the remnant low has been shifted northward
slightly with this advisory, but otherwise the forecast is very
similar to the previous advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z 18.6N 109.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  16/1200Z 18.7N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  17/0000Z 18.8N 112.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/1200Z 18.9N 113.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0000Z 18.5N 116.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 16 2025 657 
FOPZ14 KNHC 160233
PWSEP4
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042025               
0300 UTC MON JUN 16 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 110W       34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34 14   6(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Jun 2025 02:35:19 GMT




 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Jun 2025 03:22:25 GMT
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