729
FXUS61 KBOX 160722
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
322 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather continues to the start of the week as the maritime
high pressure`s influence prevails. Temperatures remain slightly
cooler Monday and Tuesday before a warming trend begins midweek.
Heat and humidity peak Thursday, with highs up to the low 90s
for some. Mainly dry weather through the week, except Thursday,
which will have the risk of thunderstorms ahead of an
approaching cold front. Turning seasonable with drier conditions
Friday and potentially into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:

* Dry and slightly warmer

High pressure continues to influence the region and keep the cooler
airmass aloft in place. Temperatures aloft aren`t expected to change
much from yesterday, so highs are only expected to increase a few
degrees. Up to mid 70s are possible in the warmest areas, mainly the
CT Valley. The rest of the region can expect high temperatures in
the lower 70s, aside from the Cape and Islands which may be a few
degrees cooler. Easterly winds shift more to the southeast as the
day goes on and remain light, which will also keep spots along the
eastern coastline more so in the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Dry and calm night with possible patchy fog developing

* Comfortable day before significant warming trend kick in

* Hit or miss showers possible heading into the evening hours Tuesday

Another dry and quiet night is expected Monday night, aside from the
chance of some patchy fog developing. Lows will range between the
mid to upper 50s across southern New England with continued cloud
cover.

Flow aloft Tuesday begins to shift more towards the SW, setting the
stage for a warming trend that is expected to peak later in the
week. Winds at the surface, though, are still expected to be from
the SE. Highs Tuesday are expected to be in the low to mid 70s. Some
hit or miss showers are a possibility heading into the evening hours
as a wave passes over the region. Otherwise, another dry day
expected with cloudy skies overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

* A significant warm up is anticipated Wednesday into Thursday.
  Less hot Friday into the upcoming weekend.

* Outside of a few hit-or-miss showers on Tuesday night and
  Wednesday, the next notable chance for rain will come sometime
  Thursday afternoon or evening with a robust cold front. Which
  could bring severe weather across the region.

* Seasonable and looking somewhat dry for next weekend.

Summer warmth and humidity move in Wednesday and Thursday.
Thursday will be the hottest day this week, 850mb warm to +18C
to +20C! Mixing of the boundary layer wilds afternoon highs in
the upper 80s and lower 90s. In addition, dewpoint temperatures
are elevated due southwest flow, not out of the question those
exceed 70F. When dewpoints get above 70F this becomes "air you
can wear". These conditions will help to fuel storms Thursday
afternoon associated with a cold front. The cold front will
knock down the heat and humidity Friday through the upcoming
weekend, but should remain seasonable both Friday and Saturday
with highs on either side of 80F. Sunday should begin the next
warm up with highs inching back into the middle 80s. And there
are signs the heat returns and stays longer well into the
following week as global ensembles show modest probabilites for
90F.

As for rain chances, late Tuesday and for Wednesday, there are
lower risks of shower activity, but majority of the time looks
dry. Late the week zonal flow becomes ridged in the west and
trough in the east. A cold front approaches New England Thursday
afternoon/evening, this could trigger a severe weather risk.
While we are looking five days out there is already an area
highlighted to our southwest by SPC for the potential of severe
storms. Quick look, there is instability to tap into, guidance
has MUCAPE values above 2,000 J/kg, steep lapse rates including
mid-level lapse rates of 7C/km, modest effective shear of ~35
knots. The machine-learning at CSU highlights much of the region
with a 15% to 30% chance of severe weather, which is impressive
this far out and will be something that needs to be watched.
Friday into the upcoming weekend does look more dry, with
potential shower activity on Sunday. But given this is a week
out there is plenty of time for things to change.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High -
greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Rest of Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

VFR with IFR primarily across eastern MA terminals. Highest
confidence in continued MVFR to even LIFR over Cape and Island
terminals until sunrise. Light ESE winds continue.

Monday...Moderate Confidence.

IFR improving to MVFR/VFR through the morning. Light ENE winds
veering ESE. Timing for improvements a bit uncertain, but more
likely by the mid morning hours. Cape and Island terminals,
along with PVD, may not reach VFR today.

Monday Night...Moderate Confidence.

VFR becoming MVFR, with areas of IFR possible along the Cape and
Islands. Light ESE winds becoming E along the South Coast, Cape
and Islands. Light SE winds over the rest of the region.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in IFR timing.

Lower confidence in timing for vsby reductions tonight.
Otherwise, high confidence for rest of TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
slight chance TSRA.

Wednesday Night: VFR.

Juneteenth: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High -
greater than 60 percent.

Today through Tuesday...

Seas continue to hover around 2-4 ft. These calmer seas are
expected to continue through Tuesday. E winds remain below 10
kts over the eastern waters and shift more SE heading into
tonight, continuing into tomorrow. E Winds over the southern
waters are expected to remain just below 15 kts today through
Tuesday.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft.

Juneteenth: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of
rain showers.

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dooley/Hrencecin
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...Dooley/Hrencecin
AVIATION...Dooley/Hrencecin
MARINE...Dooley/Hrencecin